In the world of professional hockey, contract negotiations for a franchise cornerstone are often a source of high drama, public posturing, and endless media speculation. Deadlines loom, agents drop cryptic quotes, and fanbases hold their collective breath. Yet, in Chicago, an almost unnerving calm surrounds the future of the organization’s centerpiece, Connor Bedard. As the phenom heads into the final year of his entry-level deal, the conversation around his inevitable, and inevitably massive, contract extension is less a question of “if” and more a relaxed discussion of “when and how much.”
Bedard himself set the tranquil tone during the NHL Player Media Tour, signaling a complete lack of friction between his camp and the Blackhawks’ front office. “There’s mutual interest in eventually getting it done,” he stated, adding that he’s “comfortable” with the process. His simple philosophy—”it’ll get done when it gets done”—speaks volumes. This isn’t a negotiation; it’s a coronation in waiting. Both sides know where this is headed. Bedard wants to be a Blackhawk for the long haul, and the Blackhawks are more than willing to build their entire future around him. The only remaining detail is the number of zeroes on the cheque.
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The Anatomy of a Franchise-Altering Contract
While the ink is far from dry, the framework for Bedard’s next deal is already taking shape, guided by league precedent and his own generational talent. Eligible to sign since July 1, Bedard is slated to become a restricted free agent after the 2025-26 season if an extension isn’t finalized. His current $950,000 cap hit is the biggest bargain in the NHL, a placeholder figure that will soon balloon into one of the league’s signature contracts.
To project Bedard’s value, one must look at comparable players who signed their second contracts as the undisputed fulcrum of their respective teams. The most relevant benchmarks are Nathan MacKinnon (Colorado Avalanche) and Nico Hischier (New Jersey Devils). When they signed their seven-year extensions coming off their ELCs, both commanded deals that ate up approximately 8.9 percent of the salary cap at the time.
Applying that same percentage model gives us a fascinating glimpse into Bedard’s financial future. A long-term deal, likely in the seven-to-eight-year range, based on that precedent would translate to a contract worth roughly $64.8 million over seven years. This would carry an average annual value (AAV) in the neighborhood of $9.256 million. For a player who is not just the team’s top forward but its entire marketing identity and the primary driver of its rebuild, a sub-$10 million AAV would be more than just palatable; it would be a strategic victory for the Blackhawks’ front office, securing a superstar through his prime years at a manageable figure. Given his trajectory, such a deal would almost certainly be considered a bargain by its midpoint.
Performance as Ammunition: Bedard Holds All the Cards
If this negotiation were a poker game, Bedard would be sitting with a royal flush. His performance through his first two NHL seasons has not only met the sky-high expectations but has provided his agent with an arsenal of leverage. The fact that the Blackhawks recently handed out a “big extension” to prospect Frank Nazar after just a handful of NHL games signals their readiness to invest. For Bedard, who has already delivered tangible, high-end results, the case for a blank cheque is ironclad.
Let’s review the evidence:
- He has surpassed 60 points in each of his first two seasons. Since the year 2000, the only other teenagers to accomplish that feat are Sidney Crosby and Patrik Laine. That’s the company he keeps.
- His 128 points in his first 150 career games rank as the third-most by a teenager in the last decade, placing him ahead of the very players—MacKinnon and Hischier—being used as contract comparables.
- He’s already posted two 20-goal seasons and has openly stated his goal is to crack the 30-goal plateau next year, a milestone that feels more like an inevitability than an ambition.
After an injury-shortened rookie campaign, Bedard successfully navigated a full 82-game schedule in 2024-25, an experience he views as crucial for his professional development and consistency. While the team around him has struggled, finishing last in the Central Division and missing the postseason for a fifth consecutive year, Bedard’s individual brilliance has been a constant, shining beacon. He has unequivocally established himself as the engine of the offense, often creating scoring chances out of thin air with little support. This summer, he continued to hone his craft, training alongside other elite young talents like Macklin Celebrini and Kent Johnson, a clear sign that he has no intention of resting on his laurels.
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The Waiting Game and the Olympic Dream
So, if the deal is a foregone conclusion, why wait? For Bedard, patience could prove to be incredibly profitable. While a seven-year, $64.8 million pact seems reasonable now, a torrid start to the 2025-26 season could fundamentally change the financial landscape. If Bedard comes out of the gate on a 35-goal, 90-point pace, the floor for his AAV could easily jump north of $10 million, perhaps even approaching $11 million. Every dominant performance is another chip on his side of the table. Holding off on signing is a calculated gamble that the price today won’t be the price tomorrow.
There’s another powerful motivator at play beyond the contract itself: the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy. For the first time since 2014, the NHL’s best will return to the international stage, and a spot on Team Canada’s roster is one of the most coveted prizes in the sport. The forward group will be impossibly deep, featuring names like Connor McDavid, Sidney Crosby, MacKinnon, and Mitch Marner. For Bedard to force his way into that conversation, he’ll need to deliver a season that is not just great, but undeniable. That drive for international glory will fuel his performance, which in turn will only strengthen his contract position.
For now, all is quiet on the Chicago front. There is no acrimony, no public pressure, only a shared understanding between a generational player and the franchise he is destined to lead. The contract will get done. But for fans and management alike, every electrifying rush, every blistering shot, and every point Bedard racks up this coming season will serve as a thrilling, and slightly terrifying, reminder of the rising price of a phenom.
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