Another season is on the horizon, and in Montreal, the familiar ghosts of playoffs past and future are already beginning to stir. The 2024-25 campaign was a tale of two teams: the one that clawed its way into a wild card spot with a respectable 91 points, and the one that was unceremoniously punted from the postseason by a far superior Washington Capitals team. For the long-suffering denizens of the Bell Centre, a taste of playoff hockey was a welcome appetizer, but it’s the main course they truly crave. And as we look ahead to the 2025-26 season, the question on everyone’s mind is whether this team is ready to take the next step, or if the cracks in the foundation are about to become gaping chasms.
General manager (GM) Kent Hughes has been busy, adding offensive talent like Zachary Bolduc and Joe Veleno and shoring up the blue line with Noah Dobson. On paper, the team looks better. But hockey, as we all know, is not played on paper. It’s played on the ice, in the trenches, and in the minds of the players and management. And when you look closely, you’ll see that the Canadiens are facing a trifecta of issues that could define their season. From a defensive logjam that could force a trade, to the lingering question of whether their last playoff appearance was a mirage, to the career of a young center hanging in the balance, the Habs are at a crossroads. So, let’s cut through the offseason optimism and take a hard look at the three burning questions that will determine whether the Canadiens are contenders or pretenders in 2025-26.
The Matheson Dilemma: A High-Stakes Game of Defensive Musical Chairs
In the high-stakes world of NHL roster construction, being a victim of your own success is a real and present danger. And right now, there’s no better example of this than Mike Matheson. At 31, Matheson is a stabilizing force on the Canadiens’ blue line, a veteran presence who can eat up over 24 minutes a night, contribute on special teams, and provide a steady hand for a young and developing defensive corps. His $4.875 million cap hit is more than reasonable for a player of his calibre. So why, then, is his name being bandied about in trade rumours?
The answer, in short, is Lane Hutson and David Reinbacher. The Canadiens’ prospect pipeline on defence is finally starting to bear fruit, and with the acquisition of Dobson, the blue line is suddenly looking a little crowded. This is a good problem to have, of course, but it’s a problem nonetheless. And it’s a problem that could force Hughes to make a difficult decision.
Matheson, for all his veteran savvy and on-ice contributions, has become somewhat expendable. He’s a known quantity, a reliable top-four defenceman who could fetch a handsome return on the trade market. And what do the Canadiens need more than anything else right now? A legitimate second-line center. The kind of player who can take the pressure off Nick Suzuki, drive his own line, and provide the offensive punch that separates the good teams from the great ones.
The temptation to trade Matheson for that elusive 2C will be immense. But it’s a move that’s fraught with peril. For one thing, trading a player of Matheson’s ilk in the offseason is a risky proposition. His value will likely be at its peak at the trade deadline, when contending teams are desperate for defensive reinforcements. A patient approach could yield a much greater return.
The Matheson dilemma is a microcosm of the larger challenge facing the Canadiens. It’s a test of their asset management, their player evaluation, and their ability to make the right move at the right time. The easy move would be to stand pat, to keep Matheson in the fold and hope that the young guns continue to develop. But the bold move, the one that could propel this team to the next level, is to cash in on their valuable asset and address their most glaring need. The path they choose will have a ripple effect that will be felt throughout the entire organization, for better or for worse.
The Playoff Mirage: Was Last Season’s Success a Fluke?
On the surface, the 2024-25 season was a step in the right direction for the Canadiens. A 40-31-11 record, 91 points, and a playoff berth. After years of languishing in the league’s basement, it was a welcome return to relevance. But if you dig a little deeper, you’ll find a much more troubling narrative. One that suggests that the Habs’ playoff appearance may have been more of a mirage than a true reflection of their abilities.
Let’s start with the ugly truth: the Canadiens were a deeply flawed team last season. They stumbled out of the gate with a horrific 8-13-3 record, leaving them 31st overall by early December. They endured three losing streaks of five or more games. And perhaps most damning of all, they finished the season with a negative goal differential. In the powerhouse Western Conference, that kind of record wouldn’t get you a sniff of the playoffs. But in the weaker East, it was just enough to squeak in.
And what happened when they got there? They were promptly dispatched by a bigger, stronger, more experienced Washington Capitals team. It was a harsh reminder of just how far the Canadiens still have to go to be considered a legitimate contender.
The front office has made moves to address some of the team’s deficiencies. The addition of Noah Dobson and Zachary Bolduc should provide a much-needed boost to the offence and the blue line. Veleno is another intriguing piece who could add some scoring depth. But the team’s biggest weakness remains unaddressed: a lack of physicality among the forward group.
Outside of Josh Anderson, the Canadiens are a relatively easy team to play against. They lack the snarl and grit that is so often the hallmark of successful playoff teams. The hope is that Juraj Slafkovsky can evolve into the power forward they so desperately need, but that’s a lot of pressure to put on a young player’s shoulders. Management has acknowledged this as a concern, but so far, their actions haven’t matched their words.
Then there are the special teams. The power play should, in theory, be better with the new offensive weapons. But the penalty kill is a major question mark, with key players needing to be replaced. And that brings us to the elephant in the room: goaltending.
Samuel Montembeault had a career year last season, racking up 31 wins. But he also looked worn out at times, and his season-ending injury, potentially due to the wear and tear of playing over 60 games, is a major red flag. The Canadiens are facing the most back-to-back games in the NHL this season, and the reliance on backup Jakub Dobes will be critical.
The handling of the goaltending situation over the past two years has been a mess, plain and simple. The development of Cayden Primeau was mishandled, and while Dobes performed admirably as a rookie, it remains to be seen if he’s ready for a heavier workload. The long-term prospects, Jacob Fowler and Yevgeni Volokhin, are still a couple of seasons away from being ready for a serious shot in Montreal.
So, was last season a sign of things to come, or was it a flash in the pan? The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle. The Canadiens are a better team than they were a year ago, but they’re still a long way from being a true contender. The additions of Dobson and Bolduc are a step in the right direction, but until they address their lack of physicality and special teams woes, they’ll remain a team on the bubble, a team that’s good enough to make the playoffs, but not good enough to do any real damage when they get there.
The $3.36 Million Question: Is Kirby Dach the Linchpin or the Liability?
In the grand scheme of the Canadiens’ rebuild, there is no single player who represents both the promise and the peril of the team’s future more than Kirby Dach. He is, without a doubt, the most burning question facing this organization. The answer to which will likely determine the trajectory of this team for years to come.
When he’s on the ice, Dach possesses the tantalizing skillset of a legitimate second-line center. He has the size, the vision, and the offensive instincts to be a dynamic force in the middle of the ice. He’s the kind of player that can elevate the play of his linemates and provide the secondary scoring that is so crucial for any team with Stanley Cup aspirations. He is, in short, exactly what the Canadiens need.
But that’s the problem, isn’t it? “When he’s on the ice.” Since arriving in Montreal, Dach has been a ghost, a phantom in the lineup. He’s played in just 117 of a possible 246 regular-season games, missing more than half of the team’s scheduled contests. He has yet to play a full, healthy season. The “injury-prone” label, whether fair or not, has become inextricably linked to his name. You can call them “unlucky accidents” all you want, but the end result is the same: an empty stall in the locker room and a massive hole in the lineup.
His constant presence on the injured reserve has created a cascading effect of chaos for head coach Martin St. Louis. Lines are constantly being juggled, players are forced into roles they’re not suited for, and any semblance of chemistry is shattered before it even has a chance to form. The decision by management to anoint Dach as Sean Monahan’s replacement was, in hindsight, a “terrible decision.” Dach struggled both offensively and defensively in his limited action last season, and the team’s performance suffered as a result.
Now, as the 2025-26 season approaches, the rumour mill is once again swirling around Dach’s health. While recent reports suggest that he is “progressing really well” and “crushing his summer training,” the skepticism is understandable. We’ve heard this song before. We’ve seen the hopeful preseason reports, only to be met with the crushing reality of another long-term injury.
The stakes for both Dach and the Canadiens could not be higher. If he can finally stay healthy, if he can play a full 82-game season and provide even a modest 40 points, it would be a game-changer for this team. It would allow Nick Suzuki to finally have a reliable running mate, it would slot Veleno and Jake Evans into their proper roles in the bottom-six, and it would give the Canadiens the kind of depth down the middle that they haven’t had in years.
But what if he can’t? What if the injury bug bites again? It’s a scenario that’s almost too painful to contemplate for Habs fans, but it’s one that management must be prepared for. The team’s entire forward group, and indeed their entire season, hinges on the health of a player who has proven to be anything but durable.
The Dach conundrum is a high-wire act with no safety net. If he stays healthy, the Canadiens could be a legitimate threat in the East. If he doesn’t, they’ll be right back where they started: a team with a glaring hole in the middle of their lineup and a whole lot of questions with no easy answers. The fate of the Canadiens’ season rests on the surgically repaired body of their enigmatic second-line center. And for a fan base that has been through so much, it’s a terrifyingly precarious position to be in.
The Verdict
So, what are we to make of the 2025-26 Canadiens? Are they a team on the rise, poised to make a real run at the Stanley Cup? Or are they still entrenched in a rebuild?
The truth, as is often the case, is probably somewhere in between. This is a team with a lot of potential, but also a lot of question marks. The additions of Dobson and Bolduc are exciting, and the prospect pipeline is finally starting to bear fruit. But the underlying issues – the defensive logjam, the inconsistent play, the lack of physicality, and Dach’s precarious health – are impossible to ignore.
The Canadiens are no longer a basement dweller. They’re a respectable team, a team that should be in the mix for a playoff spot. But the leap from “respectable” to “contender” is the hardest one to make in the NHL. And it’s a leap the Canadiens may not be ready for just yet.
The next few months will be crucial. The decisions that Hughes makes regarding Matheson, the performance of the team in the early part of the season, and, of course, the health of Dach will all play a major role in shaping the team’s destiny. For the fans, it will be a season of cautious optimism, of holding their breath every time Dach takes a hit, of hoping that last year’s playoff appearance was a sign of things to come and not just a cruel tease.
The ghosts of playoffs past are always lurking in Montreal. The ghosts of ’93, of ’86, of a time when the Canadiens were the class of the NHL. The current iteration of the team is a long way from living up to that legacy. But for the first time in a long time, there is a glimmer of hope.
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