The Toronto Maple Leafs opened the 2025-26 season—and the post-Mitch Marner era—with a 5-2 victory over the Montreal Canadiens. On paper, it was a successful night. The club extended its home-opener winning streak to ten games, tying a record set by the Washington Capitals from 2001 to 2012. Two points are in the bank. Yet, for anyone who watched the 60 minutes of hockey played between the empty-net goals, the final score felt more like a flattering mirage than a reflection of reality.
The game, played under the somewhat distracted gaze of a Scotiabank Arena crowd more invested in the Blue Jays’ concurrent playoff triumph, was a messy, disjointed affair. It was a win, but as head coach Craig Berube bluntly stated post-game, there is “lots to clean up.” This victory wasn’t a statement of dominance; it was a baseline reading of a team still learning his system, with clear signs of both promise and significant concern.
Also on the EDGE – Toronto’s October Buzz: Why the Maple Leafs are Ceding the Spotlight to the Blue Jays
The Renaissance of Morgan Rielly
If there was one unambiguous bright spot for Toronto, it was the performance of Morgan Rielly. The veteran defenseman was unequivocally the team’s best player, earning the internal championship belt as player of the game. This wasn’t just about his game-winning goal; it was about the process and the authoritative nature of his play all night long.
The decisive moment came midway through the third period of a 2-2 game. After Matthew Knies was denied on a breakaway by Canadiens netminder Sam Montembeault, he tenaciously pursued the puck, retrieving it and finding Rielly driving the net. Rielly made no mistake, wiring a shot high over Montembeault’s glove. It was the kind of aggressive, offensively-attuned play that defined his 72-point campaign in 2018-19.
The underlying numbers support the eye test. According to NaturalStatTrick.com, Rielly led all skaters with a remarkable 1.24 expected goals at 5-on-5. On a night where the Leafs controlled only 46 percent of the puck, Rielly managed to post a positive expected goal differential when he was on the ice, driving play forward when many of his teammates were treading water. As teammate Calle Järnkrok noted, “He did everything out there today for us.”
This resurgence is seemingly by design. Following a summer conversation with GM Brad Treliving, Rielly dedicated himself to a new gym regimen. That, combined with the acquisition of a steady, defense-first partner in Brandon Carlo, appears to have unlocked a more confident and assertive version of Rielly, who feels secure enough to jump into the rush knowing his partner is adept at protecting the fort.
Calm in the Crease and Depth Contributions
While Rielly was the engine, Anthony Stolarz was the steadying hand. Making 27 saves on 29 shots, the goaltender was calm and composed, particularly when facing Montreal’s cycle game. For long stretches, the Canadiens appeared to generate more sustained pressure, and a strong argument could be made that Stolarz’s quiet efficiency was the true foundation of the victory.
Offensively, the support came from some expected and unexpected sources. William Nylander, despite being largely invisible at even strength for most of the night, padded his stats with a three-point performance (one goal, two assists), including the primary assist on Bobby McMann’s opening goal just a minute into the game. John Tavares chipped in with two assists, but the most efficient offensive contributor was fourth-liner Steven Lorentz. In limited ice time, Lorentz added two assists, providing the kind of value-added performance from the bottom six that Berube’s system demands.
Berube’s Blackboard: Plenty to Clean Up
For every positive, however, there seemed to be a corresponding negative that will surely be a focus in the coming days’ video sessions. The victory papers over some significant cracks that a more opportunistic opponent might have exploited.
Also on the EDGE – Easton Cowan Has Earned His Place on the Maple Leafs’ Roster
First and foremost was the shocking lack of impact from the team’s biggest star. Auston Matthews was a non-factor at 5-on-5, finishing the game without a single shot on goal before his empty-netter. His underlying metrics were alarming; with Matthews on the ice at five-on-five, the Leafs generated a paltry 19% expected goal share, meaning the opposition generated the lion’s share of quality chances when he was on the ice.
Equally concerning was the performance of the supposed shutdown pairing of Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev. Brought together to be a stabilizing, defense-first unit, they struggled mightily against Montreal’s speed. When on the ice together, the duo was caved in, with McCabe and Tanev posting individual expected goals for percentages of 14% and 12%, respectively. The pairing was on the ice for a staggering six high-danger chances against at 5-on-5.
Finally, the power play was both ineffective and a liability. The top unit, featuring Matthews and company, failed to register a single shot on goal. Worse yet, it surrendered a short-handed goal in the first period after a neutral-zone miscue allowed Montreal’s Oliver Kapanen to break in and score, a historic goal that made him just the fifth player in Canadiens history to score short-handed within his first 19 NHL games.
A Starting Point
In the end, opening night provided a perfect microcosm of what this Maple Leafs team is: a work in progress. The 5-2 scoreline, inflated by two empty-netters, masked a sloppy, uneven performance. The structure and tenacity Berube preaches were visible only in flashes.
The win was secured by a resurgent performance from its longest-tenured player, steady goaltending, and timely depth scoring. But the ineffectiveness of its superstar, the struggles of its new shutdown pair, and a powerless power play are significant issues that need immediate attention. It’s two points in the standings, and that’s what matters most in October. But the blueprint for success under Craig Berube has been laid out; the execution remains far from complete.
Created with the aid of Gemini AI